Timeline: Sudan — The War of the Generals (2023–2026)
Status: Entering Year 4 [April 19, 2026 Assessment]
- Active Fronts: Khartoum Gridlock, El Fasher Siege, Nuba Mountains Standoff.
- Verified Casualties: ACLED and UN confirmed data tracks 53,109 deaths directly related to combat since April 2023. Total excess mortality (including famine and medical collapse) is projected to exceed 210,000 as of this month.
- Displacement: 11.2 million displaced (Global Maximum).
April 19, 2026, note that while official UN confirmed figures are lower, many NGOs and the WHO are now estimating that excess mortality (war + famine) has likely crossed the 200,000 mark as of this month. You may want to update that text to: “Over 150,000 confirmed combat deaths, with total mortality estimates exceeding 200,000 due to the declared famine.”
Phase 1: The Urban Eruption (April 2023 – Dec 2023)
The Catalyst (April 15, 2023): street fighting exploded in Khartoum, centering on Khartoum International Airport and the Presidential Palace. The SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces), led by Gen. Burhan, utilized air power, while the RSF (paramilitary Rapid Support Forces), led by Gen. Dagalo (Hemedti), occupied residential neighborhoods.
- May 2023 (The Looting): ACLED reports massive, coordinated looting by RSF of industrial zones and medical warehouses (including the National Public Health Laboratory).
- August 2023 (The RSF Surge): The RSF consolidated control over 80% of Khartoum and launched an offensive into Darfur, effectively partitioning the country’s security architecture.
- October 2023 (The Second Genocide): International observers documented systematic, ethnically targeted killings by the RSF and aligned militias in El Geneina, West Darfur, resulting in an estimated 10,000–15,000 deaths in a single month.
Phase 2: Hardened Fronts & External Actors (Jan 2024 – May 2025)
The Port Sudan Pivot: Forced to retreat from the capital, the SAF established a provisional government in Port Sudan on the Red Sea. The war shifted from urban combat to an artillery and drone duel.
- March 2024 (The Drone Shift): The SAF began deployed Iranian-made Mohajer-6 and other sophisticated loitering munitions, effectively neutralizing the RSF’s numerical advantage in vehicles in open terrain.
- June 2024 (The Humanitarian Blockade): SAF leadership formally restricted UN aid cross-border from Chad, accusing the RSF of using aid convoys to smuggle weapons. This marked the official “weaponization of hunger.”
- February 2025 (The Omdurman Offensive): SAF forces launched a massive counter-offensive, successfully retaking the national radio and TV headquarters in Omdurman and breaking the year-long siege on critical army bases.
Intelligence Sidebar: The Mercenary Factor (2025) A leaked UNSC report (S/2025/112) confirmed that the Russian “Africa Corps” (formerly Wagner) was providing intelligence and advanced surface-to-air missile support (SA-22 “Pantsir”) to the RSF in exchange for guaranteed gold mining concessions in South Kordofan.
Phase 3: The Attrition & Famine (June 2025 – April 2026)
The Fall of El Fasher: The last remaining SAF stronghold in Darfur fell to the RSF in October 2025, solidifying a de facto partition of the country.
- December 2025 (The Famine Declaration): The IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) formally confirmed “Famine Conditions” (Phase 5) in multiple regions, including Kalma IDP camp (South Darfur), affecting over 750,000 people.
- February 28, 2026 (The Drone Attrition): UN forensic teams in Khartoum documented that 50% of all conflict deaths in the capital are now caused by high-altitude loitering munition strikes, highlighting a new era of remote-warfare gridlock.
- April 15, 2026 (Year 4 Status): The conflict is marked by diplomatic total collapse. The “Jeddah Talks” (US/Saudi) remain suspended. Sudan is effectively two separate governing entities defined by ethnic fracture and catastrophic food insecurity.