Myanmar: The Post-Coup Civil War
The 2026 Status: The military junta (SAC) has officially entered a stalemate. On April 10, 2026, Min Aung Hlaing was sworn in as President after fraudulent elections, attempting to cloak the regime in “democracy.”
The Myanmar “Regional Shock” Archive (April 18, 2026)
The situation today is no longer about “protests.” It is about the emergence of de facto mini-states.
Tactical Focus: Resistance forces (PDF and Ethnic Armed Organizations) now control approximately 42% of the country. The junta is losing its grip on the borders but remains entrenched in the Bamar heartland with Russian/Chinese air support.
Recent Darfur-style internal displacement, which is crossing 4 million people this year.
- The Border Collapse: As of late 2025/early 2026, the military junta (SAC) has lost stable control of over 100 towns. Most importantly, the Arakan Army (AA) now controls the entire 271km border with Bangladesh.
- The Sovereign Shift: Bangladesh is now negotiating directly with the Arakan Army for border security and trade—treating them as a governing power while ignoring the junta in the capital.
- The 2026 Election Sham: The junta just concluded a three-phase “general election” (Dec 2025 – Jan 2026). However, the numbers are a disaster: while they claimed a 55% turnout, analysts show that 13 million people were excluded because the junta couldn’t even reach those territories to set up polling stations.
- Operation 1027 Legacy: The “Three Brotherhood Alliance” successfully broke the military’s back in the north, and now the fight has moved to the regional capitals, like Sittwe, which is currently under heavy siege (April 18, 2026).
Intelligence Archive: The Myanmar Civil War [2021–2026]
Current Status: Civil War / Political Theater [April 2026]
- Political Shift: Transition to nominally civilian government; Min Aung Hlaing sworn in as President (April 10, 2026).
- Territorial Control: SAC Junta (21%) vs. Resistance/EAOs (42%) vs. Contested (37%).
- Humanitarian Crisis: 4.1 million internally displaced; 16.2 million in need of aid.
Phase 1: The Coup and the People’s War (2021–2023)
The conflict began on February 1, 2021, when the Tatmadaw (military) seized power from the elected NLD government. What started as peaceful protests evolved into a “People’s War” as students and activists fled to ethnic borderlands to form People’s Defense Forces (PDF). By late 2023, the Operation 1027 offensive by ethnic alliances proved the military could lose major regional commands.
Phase 2: The Stalemate and Conscription (2024–2025)
Faced with dwindling manpower and low morale, the junta activated a mandatory conscription law in 2024. This triggered a massive exodus of youth and forced the SAC to rely almost exclusively on Russian and Chinese airpower to hold the “Dry Zone” heartland.
Phase 3: The “Disciplined Democracy” Theater (Early 2026)
In early 2026, the military executed its long-planned “Roadmap to Democracy.”
- Sham Elections: Held under heavy guard, the military-backed party claimed victory while opposition leaders remained imprisoned.
- The Presidency: On April 10, 2026, Min Aung Hlaing assumed the presidency, a move designed to gain ASEAN normalcy and sanctions relief, despite ongoing battlefield losses in Rakhine and Shan States.
Spotlight: The formation of the SCEF (Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union) on March 30 / April 1, 2026, represents the most unified front the resistance has ever seen since the 2021 coup.
April 15, 2026: SAC Junta persists with its “Presidential Transition” in Naypyidaw. Read Spotlight Story
Intelligence Sidebar: The Shadow Alliance (2026)
On April 15, 2026, a new Resistance Alliance (SCEF) was announced, bringing together the largest Ethnic Armed Organizations with a single vision for a Federal Democracy—signaling that despite the Junta’s “Presidential” rebranding, the war is far from over.
WarsWW.net View-point
“Myanmar isn’t a civil war anymore; it’s a sovereignty transition. The junta is becoming a city-state in Naypyidaw, while the ethnic borders are becoming the new regional power brokers.”
Asian Unrest: The “Sovereignty Transition”
South China Sea: China installed a 352-meter floating barrier across the Scarborough Shoal entrance on April 10, 2026. US and Philippine troops are currently beginning massive military drills in response.