The Iran Nuclear Standoff (2025–2026) is the ultimate “High Stakes” timeline for your Middle East silo. Since we’re finishing for the day, I’ve pre-loaded the core data so we can hit the ground running tomorrow.
This timeline isn’t just about centrifuges—it’s about a direct war that has fundamentally altered the Iranian regime.
The “Pillar Events” for the Iran Timeline (2025–2026)
March 2025: The “Trump Letter” & Oman Round 1
Trump sends a 60-day ultimatum to Tehran.
Negotiations begin in Muscat between Steve Witkoff (US) and Abbas Araghchi (Iran).
June 13, 2025: The “12-Day War”
Israel and the US launch massive strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Iran responds by hitting a US base in Qatar; Trump declares a brief ceasefire.
Late 2025: The “Snapback” & Economic Collapse
UN “Snapback” sanctions are triggered. The Iranian Rial plunges to 1.4 million per dollar.
Massive nationwide protests begin (Dec 2025), fueled by a lack of food and infrastructure.
February 28, 2026: The “Assassination Strike”
The US and Israel launch a second major air campaign.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is assassinated.
Negotiator Ali Larijani is also killed, leaving the regime in a state of “fragmented authority.”
April 2026: The Current Standoff (Pakistan Mediation)
A fragile 2-week ceasefire is in place (ending April 22).
The “Nuclear Threshold” Condition: The US demands the complete removal of all Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) from Iranian soil.
The IRGC is now fighting with the Foreign Ministry over whether to surrender the nuclear stockpile to save the regime.
1. The “Epic Fury” vs. “Roaring Lion” Breakdown
US and Israeli operations: two different objectives.
Operation Roaring Lion (Israel): Focused on “Leadership Decapitation.” This operation was responsible for the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026. Israel’s IAF conducted 10,800+ strikes targeting the command-and-control bunkers in Tehran.
Operation Epic Fury (USA): Focused on “Industrial Neutralization.” The US Navy and Air Force targeted the physical nuclear infrastructure. Specifically, they hit the Fordow and Natanz facilities with a new generation of deep-earth munitions that finally bypassed the mountain-shielding.
2. The Current “Ceasefire Tension” (April 19, 2026)
“Status: ACTIVE” section
The Mediator: Pakistan is currently the sole “Phone Line” between Trump and the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
The Violation Dispute: As of this morning, Tehran is accusing the US of violating the ceasefire by maintaining a Naval Blockade on Iranian ports. Trump, conversely, is accusing Iran of using the ceasefire to “re-arm” its remaining 40% of ballistic missile launchers.
The Deadline: The two-week ceasefire announced on April 7/8 is set to expire within the next 72 hours (April 21/22).