SITDECK GLOBAL SITUATION BRIEFING Mar 26 ’26

March 26, 2026 | 02:00 UTC

BLUF

Operation Epic Fury enters its 25th day with no ceasefire in sight — Iran’s foreign minister has rejected direct U.S. talks while Israel expands ground operations into Lebanon and continues striking Iranian naval and civilian infrastructure. Markets are responding with extreme fear (CNN F&G Index: 10) as gold surges nearly 3% and VIX remains elevated at 25.33. Egypt’s offer to host de-escalation talks and Trump’s announcement of a May Beijing summit with Xi Jinping represent the sole near-term diplomatic off-ramps in an otherwise deteriorating strategic environment.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

•EPIC FURY — NO OFF-RAMP: CENTCOM confirms Day 25+ of combat operations against Iran, described as “on or ahead of plan.” U.S. Army conducted what is described as the longest field artillery strike in the campaign. Iran’s FM has publicly rejected direct U.S. talks; Iran’s parliamentary speaker and top diplomat have reportedly been temporarily removed from U.S. targeting lists for 4-5 days to create diplomatic space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

•ISRAEL EXPANDS LEBANON OPERATIONS: Israeli forces have taken control of eight settlements in southern Lebanon, advancing from Taybeh toward Deir Seryan toward the Litani River. Hezbollah struck Israel’s Defense Ministry compound in Tel Aviv with “missiles of various types.” (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

•IRANIAN NAVY STRUCK AT CASPIAN SEA: The Israeli Air Force struck Iranian Navy vessels at Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea, reportedly destroying a corvette, four missile boats, and auxiliary craft — a significant geographic expansion of strike operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

•BOMBING OF SHIRAZ DOCUMENTED: Open-source footage captures sustained airstrikes in Shiraz, Iran’s fourth-largest city, signaling continued pressure on civilian-adjacent infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: MODERATE)

•TRUMP ANNOUNCES BEIJING SUMMIT: Trump announced a May 14-15 summit with President Xi in Beijing — explicitly noting it was delayed due to the Iran operation — a significant geopolitical signaling event suggesting Washington is managing escalation optics with Beijing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

•USS GERALD R. FORD (CVN-78) IN SOUDA BAY FOR REPAIR: CSG-12 is in port at Crete for maintenance, reducing NATO/Eastern Mediterranean carrier strike capacity. USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) remains in the Arabian Sea; USS George Washington in Yokosuka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Ford; MODERATE for Lincoln)

•PENTAGON MISSILE PRODUCTION SURGE: DoD announced a major increase in missile production capacity, with emphasis on systems countering aerial threats and one-way attack drones — a direct response to Epic Fury consumption rates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

•SAUDI NUCLEAR DEAL PATHWAY: Reports confirm the Trump administration is pursuing a civil nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that would permit enrichment — a proliferation concern that intersects directly with the Iran campaign. (CONFIDENCE: MODERATE)

•UKRAINE STRIKES RUSSIAN ARCTIC PATROL SHIP: Ukrainian drones damaged the Russian Project 23550 icebreaker *Purga* under construction at Vyborg Shipyard, St. Petersburg — a significant long-range strike on Arctic-capable naval assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

•CRITICAL INTERNET OUTAGES — AFRICA: Zimbabwe and Ethiopia are experiencing critical BGP-level internet disruptions (24-hour duration), with Chad showing additional anomalies. Ethiopia already under humanitarian stress from March flooding. (CONFIDENCE: MODERATE)

## REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

### 🔴 Middle East

The Iran war is the dominant global event. The diplomatic picture is fractured: Trump claims Iran wants a deal “so badly” but fears retaliation; Iran’s FM publicly rejects talks; the Omani channel cited “significant progress” in late February but appears stalled. Tehran issued a fresh warning to an unnamed regional neighbor against occupying Iranian islands — likely directed at UAE over the Abu Musa/Tunbs dispute, suggesting Iran is managing multiple pressure fronts simultaneously. Egypt’s offer to host de-escalation talks is the most concrete diplomatic opening on the table. Travel advisories for Saudi Arabia and Oman remain at Level 3 due to Iranian missile/drone risk.

### 🔴 Europe / Levant

Israel’s ground push into Lebanon is accelerating, with eight settlements seized and an advance toward the Litani River — territory Israel last held in 2006. Hezbollah’s Tel Aviv strike on the Defense Ministry compound marks an escalation in targeting symbology. Russia’s ambassador to Lebanon claims Moscow is making “diplomatic efforts to contain escalation.” The Russian-noted angle: Moscow believes the Iran crisis may pressure Kyiv toward more pragmatic ceasefire terms by diverting Western financial attention.

### 🟡 Europe

Ukraine’s long-range drone strike on the *Purga* icebreaker in St. Petersburg demonstrates continued deep-strike capability. Rhineland-Palatinate state elections occurred March 22; results should be watched for implications on German federal coalition dynamics. The USS Gerald R. Ford’s repair stop in Souda Bay maintains a U.S. presence in the Eastern Mediterranean but reduces combat-ready surge capacity.

### 🟡 Asia-Pacific

South Korea rolled out its first series-produced KF-21 Boramae fighter jet — a milestone for indigenous defense capability that will reduce Seoul’s reliance on U.S. platforms over time. Trump’s Beijing summit announcement for May is the region’s strategic headline, suggesting a deliberate effort to compartmentalize U.S.-China trade tensions from the Iran conflict. USS Nimitz is deployed in the Pacific (low-confidence position). A M7.5 deep earthquake struck Tonga on March 24 (green alert — deep focus, limited surface impact).

### 🟠 Americas

Multiple wildfire emergency declarations active in Oklahoma (Jumping Juniper, Dibble Creek, Buck Horn fires) with no declared end dates. Riverside County, CA (Almond Fire) issued evacuation orders and warnings. Snowmelt flooding continues along the Snake River and Two Rivers River in Minnesota/North Dakota border counties. Migrants marched in southern Mexico protesting immigration restrictions — relevant to ongoing U.S.-Mexico border dynamics.

### 🟡 Africa

Sudan remains under active sanctions and humanitarian stress. Internet disruptions in Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, and Chad warrant monitoring — Ethiopia is simultaneously managing flood/landslide recovery from the March 10 Gammo Zone disaster (96 dead, 1,950 households affected). FIRMS satellite fire data shows active burn clusters in Sudan/Ethiopia border region.